2.3 Binary Market Limitations

Most prediction market platforms focus exclusively on binary YES/NO outcomes:

  • "Will Bitcoin hit $100k by end of year?" (YES/NO)

  • "Will Team A win the game?" (YES/NO)

However, many real-world questions have multiple possible outcomes:

  • "Which team will win the NBA championship?" (30 teams)

  • "What will be the top-grossing movie of 2025?" (100+ films)

  • "Which candidate will win the presidential primary?" (10+ candidates)

Current platforms handle multi-outcome scenarios poorly, either creating multiple binary markets (inefficient, price inconsistencies) or not supporting these markets at all (limiting addressable use cases).

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